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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: Weighting by Party

On Outliers and Party ID

February 18, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on On Outliers and Party ID

Last week, the Gallup organization released a survey sponsored by CNN and USAToday, fielded February 4-6, that appeared to show a surge in President Read More…

News Roundup

December 10, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal12 Comments on News Roundup

So many good topics, so little time. Several items appeared in the past 48 hours that are worth passing along.
Slate’s David Kenner and William SaletaRead More…

Dissenting View

October 13, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on Dissenting View

Not surprisingly, Alan Abramowitz took exception to my comments earlier today. In the interest of fairness, I am posting a portion of his email replyRead More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part IV

October 13, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part IV

In Part I of this thread, I listed pollsters that weight by demographics but not by party identification, including the ABC News/Washington Post poll.Read More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part III

October 12, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal4 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part III

I have so far discussed two different philosophies of weighting by party. The purist model — still the choice of most media pollsters — weights samRead More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part II

October 7, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal17 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part II

In my last post on party identification, I promised to turn next to pollsters who weight by party. I’d like to finish up this thread with a discussioRead More…

MoveOn vs. Gallup

September 29, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal35 Comments on MoveOn vs. Gallup

I have to admit I didn’t see the MoveOn.org newspaper ad attacking Gallup until very late last night. And when I did I was somewhat taken aback by Read More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I

September 29, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I

I want to return to the issue of weighting, beginning with a question commenter Ted H: What puzzles me about the idea of weighting by party ID is thRead More…

Should pollsters weight by party identification?

September 28, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal

The debate over whether pollsters should statistically adjust (or weight) their samples by party identification has been heated during campaign 2004.&Read More…

More on Party ID

September 27, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal6 Comments on More on Party ID

My post on weighting by Party generated by far the most comment, and has left a few good questions unanswered. I’ll try to answer them in the next Read More…

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