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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: The 2006 Race

Incumbent Rule Redux

August 14, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal13 Comments on Incumbent Rule Redux

Time to revisit "incumbent rule," thanks to Mickey Kaus who highlighted this observation last week by Michael Barone’s column in U.S. News &Read More…

Connecticut Epilogue

August 9, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal14 Comments on Connecticut Epilogue

The nearly final 3.6% margin by which Ned Lamont defeated Joe Lieberman in yesterday’s Connecticut Senate Primary (with 98% of precincts counted, LamRead More…

CT: No Exit Polls Today (Make that One Exit Poll – See Updates)

August 8, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal25 Comments on CT: No Exit Polls Today (Make that One Exit Poll – See Updates)

I noticed several hundred (at least) incoming Google searches on various combination of "Connecticut exit poll Lieberman Lamont,"  so lRead More…

A Lesson Learned the Hard Way

August 8, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal10 Comments on A Lesson Learned the Hard Way

For those waiting on the results of the today’s Connecticut primary, here is a cautionary tale about the limits of polling in a primary election.&nbspRead More…

Still More Connecticut

August 7, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on Still More Connecticut

Quinnipiac has released another poll in Connecticut this morning that has the political web sites buzzing, perhaps a bit too much.   While Read More…

CT Sen: Another Quinnipiac Poll

August 4, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal6 Comments on CT Sen: Another Quinnipiac Poll

By now it seems that the entire political blogosphere has taken note of the latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut primary voters showing Net Lamont lRead More…

The NPR Survey and the Race for Control of Congress

August 1, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on The NPR Survey and the Race for Control of Congress

Of the many national polls released last week, the most intriguing was the survey released by NPR of likely voters in the 50 competitive congressionaRead More…

Quinnipiac’s Latest Connecticut Poll

July 21, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on Quinnipiac’s Latest Connecticut Poll

It’s been a busy week, with far more interesting topics than I have had time to blog.  Let’s start with the Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday Read More…

Connecticut Primary Polls: No Easy Task

July 10, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on Connecticut Primary Polls: No Easy Task

For all the attention paid lately to the Connecticut’s upcoming Democratic primary election between Senator Joseph Lieberman and challenger Ned LamontRead More…

Generic Ballot: What Does it Measure?

May 25, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on Generic Ballot: What Does it Measure?

Several readers have asked for my opinion on the so-called “generic vote” or “generic ballot” asked on national surveys to gauge Congressional vote pRead More…

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