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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: The 2004 Race

We Agree

January 3, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal

Speaking of Ruy (and putting on my partisan Democratic hat for a moment):  On this topic, we completely agree.  Read More…

“Final” Results

January 3, 2005November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on “Final” Results

Some news from GMU Prof. Michael McDonald by way of Ruy Teixeira – the final tabulation of the national popular vote based on the “official” count: Read More…

NAES Reports on Hispanic Voters

December 21, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on NAES Reports on Hispanic Voters

The National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) has just weighed in with its massive 81,422 interview rolling survey on the issue of Hispanic voter prefRead More…

Pew on “Moral Values”

November 12, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on Pew on “Moral Values”

The Pew Research Center released a new study yesterday, a follow-up interview with 1203 voters who were originally surveyed in October that sheds inteRead More…

MoralValues

November 7, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on MoralValues

Saturday’s New York Times had three articles on the other big exit poll issue this week: The question that showed 22% of voters choosing "moral vRead More…

First Impressions

November 3, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal32 Comments on First Impressions

As with any election, the results leave us much to sift through. Although the final counts are not yet available for all states, we can still reach sRead More…

Allocating Undecideds

November 2, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on Allocating Undecideds

I started to do something this evening I haven’t had a chance to do in several days, which is to simply browse other blogs and ponder where things staRead More…

Ohio: Back to the Future

November 1, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on Ohio: Back to the Future

There is one poll I have been dying to write about since I started this blog. It has a surprisingly strong track record and, as luck would have it, hRead More…

Are They Breaking Yet?

October 30, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal26 Comments on Are They Breaking Yet?

Looking for validation of the incumbent rule, more than a few readers (including Mickey Kaus and Noam Scheiber) have asked when we can expect to see Read More…

About Those Tracking Surveys

October 26, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal20 Comments on About Those Tracking Surveys

So admit it. At least once a day, possibly more often, you’ve been checking in on the various rolling-average tracking surveys. Most of us are. IfRead More…

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