Answering Erikson
The hardest part about blogging the last few weeks is that I get less time to simply read and surf than I used to. So you may already know about the Read More…
Category: Likely Voters
Likely Voters VI: Still More on Gallup
Of the two complaints about the Gallup likely voter (LV) model I covered in the last post, the first (that the selection procedure does not perfectly Read More…
Likely Voters V: More Gallup
In the last post I covered how the Gallup likely voter model works. In this post, I want to review criticisms of the model. An Imperfect Predictor?Read More…
Likely Voters IV – The Gallup Model
So how do pollsters select likely voters? The best place to start is the Gallup likely voter model, the granddaddy of them all. Gallup is also wortRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part III
Since the second installment of this series was a bit complex and abstract, even for me, I thought we might take a break and look at the difference bRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part II
Okay, we know from Part I that survey designed to forecast an election should ideally focus on those who actually vote and ignore non-voters. We alsoRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part I
Before exploring the "how" of selecting likely voters, I want to explore the "why." Why do we care about selecting "likRead More…
Likely Voters I: Thanks Harris
So on to likely voter models. Finally.
I am in the process of gathering information on the likely voter screens and models used by most of the major Read More…
NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?
As a companion piece to their poll story, the New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg weighs in this morning on why the polls disagree. It touches on much of wRead More…
Dissenting View
Not surprisingly, Alan Abramowitz took exception to my comments earlier today. In the interest of fairness, I am posting a portion of his email replyRead More…