Connecticut Epilogue
The nearly final 3.6% margin by which Ned Lamont defeated Joe Lieberman in yesterday’s Connecticut Senate Primary (with 98% of precincts counted, LamRead More…
Category: Likely Voters
A Lesson Learned the Hard Way
For those waiting on the results of the today’s Connecticut primary, here is a cautionary tale about the limits of polling in a primary election. Read More…
Quinnipiac’s Latest Connecticut Poll
It’s been a busy week, with far more interesting topics than I have had time to blog. Let’s start with the Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday Read More…
Link Roundup
Here is a round-up of some quick links on an otherwise busy day:
Prof. Franklin unpacks more analysis on why the Bush job rating seems to indicate weeRead More…
New Polls, Old Arguments
New polls are out this morning from both CBS (story, results) and CNN/USAToday/Gallup (CNN story & results, USAToday story) that show continuing lRead More…
Lessons: Likely Voter Models & Bias
On Wednesday morning after the election, still a bit groggy, I cobbled together a quick table of the final surveys released by the major national polRead More…
Allocating Undecideds
I started to do something this evening I haven’t had a chance to do in several days, which is to simply browse other blogs and ponder where things staRead More…
Ohio: Back to the Future
There is one poll I have been dying to write about since I started this blog. It has a surprisingly strong track record and, as luck would have it, hRead More…
Likely Voters VIII: Users Guide to Everybody Else
And finally: The final post in my "epic" series on likely voter models. The link to the jump page will take you to descriptions Read More…
Likely Voters VII: CBS/NYT
Virtually all of the national surveys use some form of cut-off procedure to define likely voters. Respondents are either classified as likely or unliRead More…