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MysteryPollster

Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: Legacy blog posts

Kohut’s Op-Ed Piece

October 21, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal11 Comments on Kohut’s Op-Ed Piece

Since my email box was chock full of forwarded copies of Andrew Kohut’s op-ed piece on polling in this morning’s New York Times, I thought I would bloRead More…

Likely Voters I: Thanks Harris

October 21, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal20 Comments on Likely Voters I: Thanks Harris

So on to likely voter models. Finally.
I am in the process of gathering information on the likely voter screens and models used by most of the major Read More…

Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea

October 21, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal16 Comments on Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea

As many of you may have discovered the “incumbent rule” (and this site) through yesterday’s post on Ohio, I want to add one important point: But be cRead More…

Ohio

October 20, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal36 Comments on Ohio

The main page on RealClearPolitics tonight shows a set of results for Ohio that has political junkies scratching their heads nationwide: OH: ABC: Read More…

NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?

October 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?

As a companion piece to their poll story, the New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg weighs in this morning on why the polls disagree. It touches on much of wRead More…

Poll of Polls

October 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal11 Comments on Poll of Polls

Alert reader JM tipped me off to the fact that Bill Schneider has reprised his “poll of polls” summary on CNN’s Inside Politics. According to the traRead More…

Military Absentees?

October 18, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal6 Comments on Military Absentees?

And speaking of uncovered voters… Several readers asked about active duty military personnel stationed overseas who will vote by absentee ballot. Read More…

More on Mobile Phones

October 17, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on More on Mobile Phones

I want to clarify a few points from Friday’s post on mobile phones, based on some of the very thoughtful reader comments.  First, it is temptingRead More…

Mobile Phones

October 15, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal48 Comments on Mobile Phones

Arianna Huffington, a frequent critic of political polling, is weighing in once again with an indictment of the "downright dangerous impact that Read More…

Debate III

October 14, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal10 Comments on Debate III

Here are the links to the post debate survey results. ABC and Gallup once again re-interviewed previously contacted respondents immediately after theRead More…

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