Housekeeping
First, a blanket apology to all of you who have emailed over the last week or so. You have sent a ton of great questions. I wish I had time to answeRead More…
Category: Legacy blog posts
Likely Voters VI: Still More on Gallup
Of the two complaints about the Gallup likely voter (LV) model I covered in the last post, the first (that the selection procedure does not perfectly Read More…
Likely Voters V: More Gallup
In the last post I covered how the Gallup likely voter model works. In this post, I want to review criticisms of the model. An Imperfect Predictor?Read More…
Likely Voters IV – The Gallup Model
So how do pollsters select likely voters? The best place to start is the Gallup likely voter model, the granddaddy of them all. Gallup is also wortRead More…
About Those Tracking Surveys
So admit it. At least once a day, possibly more often, you’ve been checking in on the various rolling-average tracking surveys. Most of us are. IfRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part III
Since the second installment of this series was a bit complex and abstract, even for me, I thought we might take a break and look at the difference bRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part II
Okay, we know from Part I that survey designed to forecast an election should ideally focus on those who actually vote and ignore non-voters. We alsoRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part I
Before exploring the "how" of selecting likely voters, I want to explore the "why." Why do we care about selecting "likRead More…
Battleground States
Perhaps because I spend more time writing a blog these days and less time reading them, but I have seen very little attention given to this fact: In Read More…
One Less Mystery
One more puzzle I can help demystify: Those ever so slightly variant numbers from the Washington Post and ABC News, the numbers based on the same datRead More…