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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: Legacy blog posts

The Freeman Paper Revisted

November 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal21 Comments on The Freeman Paper Revisted

I want to revisit my post from Wednesday night on the paper by Dr. Steven Freeman on the "Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy." First, Dr. FreRead More…

Exit Polls: Winston’s Theory

November 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on Exit Polls: Winston’s Theory

The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber passed on a theory floated by Republican pollster David Winston about the discrepancy in exit polling data that favorRead More…

The UCal Berkeley Report

November 18, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal31 Comments on The UCal Berkeley Report

First, one point I should have made more clearly in previous posts: The absence of significant evidence of fraud in exit polls does not prove the abseRead More…

Fraud in Florida?

November 18, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on Fraud in Florida?

A quick note before anyone emails to ask whether I think these guys are "delusional" too. The release posted on RottenDenmark indicates thatRead More…

Exit polls: breaking news

November 18, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on Exit polls: breaking news

Two late breaking updates that I did not want to get lost in the very long previous post on the Unexplained Poll Discrepancy paper, although both are Read More…

The Freeman Paper

November 17, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal55 Comments on The Freeman Paper

And speaking of MIT educated PhDs… The latest “must read” among those who want to pursue theories that the vote count was wrong and the exit polRead More…

Exit Polls: CalTech/MIT Report

November 15, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal25 Comments on Exit Polls: CalTech/MIT Report

Two new reports on exit polls came to my attention over the weekend. Both reports were written by high-powered PhDs from high-powered institutions, anRead More…

Lessons: Mobile Phones

November 14, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on Lessons: Mobile Phones

In today’s Washington Post, Richard Morin provides an important epilogue on the issue of mobile-phone-only voters. As I wrote before the election, sRead More…

Pew on “Moral Values”

November 12, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on Pew on “Moral Values”

The Pew Research Center released a new study yesterday, a follow-up interview with 1203 voters who were originally surveyed in October that sheds inteRead More…

Lessons: Likely Voter Models & Bias

November 12, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on Lessons: Likely Voter Models & Bias

On Wednesday morning after the election, still a bit groggy, I cobbled together a quick table of the final surveys released by the major national polRead More…

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