Skip to content
Saturday, May 10, 2025

MysteryPollster

Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

Menu
  • Home
  • Home
  • Incumbent Rule

Category: Incumbent Rule

Crosstabs.org

August 22, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal5 Comments on Crosstabs.org

Last week I discovered an interesting new blog devoted to political polling called Crosstabs.org.  Actually, Crosstabs.org is something of a blogRead More…

Incumbent Rule Redux

August 14, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal13 Comments on Incumbent Rule Redux

Time to revisit "incumbent rule," thanks to Mickey Kaus who highlighted this observation last week by Michael Barone’s column in U.S. News &Read More…

News Roundup

December 10, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal12 Comments on News Roundup

So many good topics, so little time. Several items appeared in the past 48 hours that are worth passing along.
Slate’s David Kenner and William SaletaRead More…

First Impressions

November 3, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal32 Comments on First Impressions

As with any election, the results leave us much to sift through. Although the final counts are not yet available for all states, we can still reach sRead More…

Allocating Undecideds

November 2, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on Allocating Undecideds

I started to do something this evening I haven’t had a chance to do in several days, which is to simply browse other blogs and ponder where things staRead More…

Are They Breaking Yet?

October 30, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal26 Comments on Are They Breaking Yet?

Looking for validation of the incumbent rule, more than a few readers (including Mickey Kaus and Noam Scheiber) have asked when we can expect to see Read More…

Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea

October 21, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal16 Comments on Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea

As many of you may have discovered the “incumbent rule” (and this site) through yesterday’s post on Ohio, I want to add one important point: But be cRead More…

Ohio

October 20, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal36 Comments on Ohio

The main page on RealClearPolitics tonight shows a set of results for Ohio that has political junkies scratching their heads nationwide: OH: ABC: Read More…

More on the Incumbent Rule

October 8, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on More on the Incumbent Rule

Several readers took strong exception to my discussion of the incumbent rule, the idea that undecided voters tend to “break” toward the incumbentchallRead More…

The Incumbent Rule

October 3, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal44 Comments on The Incumbent Rule

In discussing recent poll results, I said last week that I tend to focus most on President Bush’s job rating and percentage of the vote (which tend toRead More…

Posts navigation

Older posts

Recent Posts

  • Polling Has Changed. The Way We Read (And Sometimes Misread) It Has Not.
  • Impeachment Update: No Signs of Non-Response Error
  • Gelman: Nonresponse Not So Rare
  • MysteryPollster is Back!
  • Another ‘Phantom Swing’? Investigating Differential Nonresponse in 2018

Archives (Mostly Old!)

Legacy Categories (2004-2006)

Meta

  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.org
BlogMagazine | Theme: BlogMagazine by Dinesh Ghimire.