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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: Exit Polls

What the USCV Report Doesn’t Say (Part I)

April 8, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal31 Comments on What the USCV Report Doesn’t Say (Part I)

Mea Culpa (4/14):  This post originally argued under heading “3)” below that sampling error alone will create an artifact in the data tabulaRead More…

Tired of Exit Polls Yet?

March 21, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal1 Comment on Tired of Exit Polls Yet?

And speaking of exit polls…I borrowed the title for this post from "DemFromCT," a frequent contributor (diarist) on DailyKos.   Read More…

Hello Exit Polls My Old Friend

March 21, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal40 Comments on Hello Exit Polls My Old Friend

The release of several new papers on the 2004 exit poll controversy brings me back to this familiar topic.  The first paper, from a team of acadeRead More…

NEP Data Available Online

January 31, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on NEP Data Available Online

Unfortunately, my blogging time is short today but want to quickly pass on one bit of news (thanks to Rick Brady of Stones Cry Out for the tip): Read More…

Professor M

January 28, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal27 Comments on Professor M

Following up on a lesson learned from the last post, that a story can sometimes make a point more powerfully than a lot of arcane data, I decided to sRead More…

The War Room

January 27, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal16 Comments on The War Room

Of the newly disclosed data in the Edison/Mitofsky report on this year’s exit polls, some of the most important concern results from past elections. Read More…

The “Reluctant Bush Responder” Theory Refuted?

January 21, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal58 Comments on The “Reluctant Bush Responder” Theory Refuted?

First, my apologies for not posting yesterday. The Inauguration was also a federal holiday, which meant no child care in my household and a day of beRead More…

Impressions on the Exit Poll Report

January 20, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal28 Comments on Impressions on the Exit Poll Report

I wanted to read the full 77 pages of the Edison/Mitofsky report in full before weighing in.  It took much of the day, but here are some first imRead More…

“Media Whore” Alert*

January 19, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal5 Comments on “Media Whore” Alert*

I am likely to be on ABC’s Nightline tonight.  This evening’s broadcast, barring other "breaking news," will examine the various questiRead More…

Breaking News: NEP Releases Full Report

January 19, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal21 Comments on Breaking News: NEP Releases Full Report

A bit of breaking news:  The full 77-page "evaluation" of the exit polls prepared by the firms that conducted the exit polls was releasRead More…

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