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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Category: Divergent Polls

Ideology as a “Diagnostic?” – Part I

June 6, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on Ideology as a “Diagnostic?” – Part I

A few weeks ago, blogger Gerry Daly (Dalythoughts) took a close look at self-reported ideology as reported on several national polls.  Daly was Read More…

Judicial Filibuster: Post Mortem

May 27, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal6 Comments on Judicial Filibuster: Post Mortem

MP is admittedly still playing catch up, but the explosion of polling on judicial nominees deserves a bit of a follow-up.  Viewed side-by-side, Read More…

Realignment or a “Crappy” Poll?

March 29, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal1 Comment on Realignment or a “Crappy” Poll?

Last Friday, in the Today’s Paper’s feature, Slate’s Eric Umansky observed: USA Today goes Page One with a poll showing President Bush’s rating aRead More…

More on Dueling Florida Polls

March 1, 2005November 12, 2019 Mark Blumenthal1 Comment on More on Dueling Florida Polls

Another update on my last post on the mysterious difference in opinion on whether Jeb Bush should run for president as measured by two publicly releaRead More…

Should Jeb Run…Or Not:?

February 25, 2005October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal5 Comments on Should Jeb Run…Or Not:?

The Hotline (subscription required) caught an intriguing polling conflict yesterday.  A just released Quinnipiac poll of 1,007 Florida "voteRead More…

Lessons: Likely Voter Models & Bias

November 12, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on Lessons: Likely Voter Models & Bias

On Wednesday morning after the election, still a bit groggy, I cobbled together a quick table of the final surveys released by the major national polRead More…

About Those Tracking Surveys

October 26, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal20 Comments on About Those Tracking Surveys

So admit it. At least once a day, possibly more often, you’ve been checking in on the various rolling-average tracking surveys. Most of us are. IfRead More…

NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?

October 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?

As a companion piece to their poll story, the New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg weighs in this morning on why the polls disagree. It touches on much of wRead More…

Poll of Polls

October 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal11 Comments on Poll of Polls

Alert reader JM tipped me off to the fact that Bill Schneider has reprised his “poll of polls” summary on CNN’s Inside Politics. According to the traRead More…

Why are polls showing contradictory results?

September 28, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal

In a sense, every post on this site seeks to answer the question of why polls seem contradictory. A good place to start is with the following three pRead More…

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