Good Analysis of Post/ABC Poll
Unfortunately, the crush of time has prevented me from doing much analysis of the recent surveys beyond the horse race numbers, and yet I’ve also arRead More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
How do pollsters select “likely voters?”
I am currently at work on a detailed series of postings on how pollsters select likely voters. Clicking on this link will display short excerpts of Read More…
Why are polls showing contradictory results?
In a sense, every post on this site seeks to answer the question of why polls seem contradictory. A good place to start is with the following three pRead More…
What does the “margin of error” mean?
A good place to start is with the following three posts on the random variation inherent in all sample surveys and what a consumer can do to minimize Read More…
How do pollsters select “likely voters?”
I have done a lot of posting on this topic. If you want a very thorough reading, start with Part I and continue through the series. You might also wRead More…
Should pollsters weight by party identification?
The debate over whether pollsters should statistically adjust (or weight) their samples by party identification has been heated during campaign 2004.&Read More…
Do undecided voters break for the challenger?
When pollsters interpret results for a race involving an incumbent, most are at least aware of a phenomenon observed for telephone surveys over the laRead More…
Are polls missing people with mobile phones?
These two posts from 2004 address discuss the issue of how households with cell phones but no "landline" service can affect telephone surveyRead More…
Where does the presidential race stand today?
I comment from time to time on what the polls are saying about where the presidential race stands. Click on this link to display short excerpts of alRead More…
Can polls tell who won a debate?
Start with these two posts on how instant polls and focus group aim to evaluate how candidates faired in a debate: Instant post-debate polls
Focus GrRead More…