New Format & URL
First, if you have visited the site before, you will notice some obvious changes, hopefully for the better. With a life saving consulting assist fromRead More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
The Incumbent Rule
In discussing recent poll results, I said last week that I tend to focus most on President Bush’s job rating and percentage of the vote (which tend toRead More…
The Newsweek Poll
Newsweek Magazine released a survey last night, “the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample” of all registered voters nationally since TRead More…
Democracy Corps on Debates
Just a quick update about another before-and-after debate poll conducted online last night by Knowledge Networks, this one on behalf of Democratic polRead More…
Off Topic: Fox News Hacked?
A break from polling for a moment.
Josh Marshall has been posting this afternoon (here, here and here) about a mysterious story about John Kerry that Read More…
The First Debate: Who Won?
Murphy’s Law might explain why a week after starting a blog, my home DSL and phone service has been out for three days running (perhaps that should beRead More…
Debates II: Instant Polls
As I mentioned in the last post, past history shows that the media’s coverage of presidential debates typically has more impact on voter preference Read More…
Debates: Focus Groups as Reality TV
Ok, so apparently, MSNBC has pulled the plug on its plan to have Republican Pollster Frank Luntz conduct a live focus group on MSNBC among uncertain vRead More…
MoveOn vs. Gallup
I have to admit I didn’t see the MoveOn.org newspaper ad attacking Gallup until very late last night. And when I did I was somewhat taken aback by Read More…
Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I
I want to return to the issue of weighting, beginning with a question commenter Ted H: What puzzles me about the idea of weighting by party ID is thRead More…