About Those Tracking Surveys
So admit it. At least once a day, possibly more often, you’ve been checking in on the various rolling-average tracking surveys. Most of us are. IfRead More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part III
Since the second installment of this series was a bit complex and abstract, even for me, I thought we might take a break and look at the difference bRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part II
Okay, we know from Part I that survey designed to forecast an election should ideally focus on those who actually vote and ignore non-voters. We alsoRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part I
Before exploring the "how" of selecting likely voters, I want to explore the "why." Why do we care about selecting "likRead More…
Battleground States
Perhaps because I spend more time writing a blog these days and less time reading them, but I have seen very little attention given to this fact: In Read More…
One Less Mystery
One more puzzle I can help demystify: Those ever so slightly variant numbers from the Washington Post and ABC News, the numbers based on the same datRead More…
Kohut’s Op-Ed Piece
Since my email box was chock full of forwarded copies of Andrew Kohut’s op-ed piece on polling in this morning’s New York Times, I thought I would bloRead More…
Likely Voters I: Thanks Harris
So on to likely voter models. Finally.
I am in the process of gathering information on the likely voter screens and models used by most of the major Read More…
Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea
As many of you may have discovered the “incumbent rule” (and this site) through yesterday’s post on Ohio, I want to add one important point: But be cRead More…
Ohio
The main page on RealClearPolitics tonight shows a set of results for Ohio that has political junkies scratching their heads nationwide: OH: ABC: Read More…