Likely Voters VIII: Users Guide to Everybody Else
And finally: The final post in my "epic" series on likely voter models. The link to the jump page will take you to descriptions Read More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
The MP Reader Survey
As I mentioned in the last post, I created a short online survey about this site that you can fill out by clicking this link. If you have read this bRead More…
And Now for Something Completely Different…
You may have wondered why I disappeared for the last 24 hours or so. Well, another bit of personal business intruded. So, without further ado… The Read More…
Are They Breaking Yet?
Looking for validation of the incumbent rule, more than a few readers (including Mickey Kaus and Noam Scheiber) have asked when we can expect to see Read More…
Likely Voters VII: CBS/NYT
Virtually all of the national surveys use some form of cut-off procedure to define likely voters. Respondents are either classified as likely or unliRead More…
Answering Erikson
The hardest part about blogging the last few weeks is that I get less time to simply read and surf than I used to. So you may already know about the Read More…
Housekeeping
First, a blanket apology to all of you who have emailed over the last week or so. You have sent a ton of great questions. I wish I had time to answeRead More…
Likely Voters VI: Still More on Gallup
Of the two complaints about the Gallup likely voter (LV) model I covered in the last post, the first (that the selection procedure does not perfectly Read More…
Likely Voters V: More Gallup
In the last post I covered how the Gallup likely voter model works. In this post, I want to review criticisms of the model. An Imperfect Predictor?Read More…
Likely Voters IV – The Gallup Model
So how do pollsters select likely voters? The best place to start is the Gallup likely voter model, the granddaddy of them all. Gallup is also wortRead More…