Measurement Error…in the Count
A quick break from exit polls… Alert JW, a resident of Washington State, asks this interesting question highly relevant to the ongoing recount in tRead More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
Exits: Were They Really “Wrong?”
Last week’s posting of more detailed information on the sampling error of exit polls by the National Election Pool (NEP) allows for a quick review ofRead More…
News Roundup
So many good topics, so little time. Several items appeared in the past 48 hours that are worth passing along.
Slate’s David Kenner and William SaletaRead More…
What is the Sampling Error for Exit Polls?
The newly posted methodology information on the National Election Pool (NEP) website (for states and the national survey) provides much more guidanceRead More…
NEP Methodology Info Now Online
As of yesterday afternoon, the National Election Pool website (exit-poll.net) has posted methodology statements for both the national and statewide exRead More…
Correcting the “Correction”
Having spent the weekend with my family, I have much to cover today and not enough time to cover it. Let’s start with the mini-controversy over the esRead More…
That Rumored Hispanic Revision?
It’s now apparently official. Brosnan of the Scripps Howard News Service reports and includes a hint as to how the "revision" was accoRead More…
NBC’s Shuster on Exit Polls
We learn more in drips and drabs. This from NBC’s David Shuster via Chris Matthew’s "Hardblogger" (hat tip: RottenDemark): The fRead More…
The Raw Exit Poll Data
I know there has been much interest in when the National Election Poll would release the raw data from the exit polls. I want to voice one note of cauRead More…
NEP Revises Texas Hispanic Estimates
I am a bit behind on this item, but the Associated Press issued a "correction" on Monday based on a revision of the exit poll estimate of PrRead More…