We Agree
Speaking of Ruy (and putting on my partisan Democratic hat for a moment): On this topic, we completely agree. Read More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
“Final” Results
Some news from GMU Prof. Michael McDonald by way of Ruy Teixeira – the final tabulation of the national popular vote based on the “official” count: Read More…
Happy New Year
Just a reminder, in case you missed my holiday post, that I am taking a break this week. Blogging will resume in the New Year. In the meantime,Read More…
So if Exit Polls Have So Much Error, Why Do Them?
After my post last week, which argued that the deceiving Kerry “leads” in four battleground states fell well short of statistical significance requirRead More…
So WHY Were the Exit Polls “Wrong?”
This post is another summary that mostly ties together various items I’ve covered separately, but also adds some new material. We know that the exit Read More…
Season’s Greetings!
First, I just wanted to let everyone know that I will be taking a much-needed break from blogging for the next week. I’ll be back on January 3. Read More…
Have the Exit Polls Been Wrong Before?
I have a short backlog of posts on the exit polls I’ve been working on this week, intended mostly to summarize information I’ve covered previously anRead More…
Oh Those Pesky Filtered Questions
Josh Marshall flags an error in Wednesday’s Washington Post poll story on Social Security (conducted jointly with ABC). The story correctly reRead More…
NAES Reports on Hispanic Voters
The National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) has just weighed in with its massive 81,422 interview rolling survey on the issue of Hispanic voter prefRead More…
What About Those German Exit Polls?
A commenter asked last week, "why are exit polls so much more accurate in Europe?" This is a question worth considering, because all surveysRead More…