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Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Author: Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.

The AMA Spring Break Survey – Part II

March 29, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal12 Comments on The AMA Spring Break Survey – Part II

Picking up where we left off yesterday, the AMA’s Spring Break survey has problems other than the disclosure of its methodology.  We must also cRead More…

The AMA Spring Break Survey – Part I

March 28, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal11 Comments on The AMA Spring Break Survey – Part I

Last week, MP discussed a not-quite projective study of evacuees from Hurricane Katrina published by the New York Times.  I noted the effort madRead More…

Link Roundup

March 27, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal1 Comment on Link Roundup

Here is a round-up of some quick links on an otherwise busy day:
Prof. Franklin unpacks more analysis on why the Bush job rating seems to indicate weeRead More…

New Low or Steady? Franklin’s Answer

March 24, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on New Low or Steady? Franklin’s Answer

Last week, in looking at the graph of the Bush approval rating data as plotted by our friend Prof. Charles “Political Arithmetik” Franklin, I asked wRead More…

On Random Sampling and NYT Katrina Evacuee Study

March 23, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal

An article in yesterday’s New York Times on interviews conducted among Katrina evacuees raises some very important questions about how to use a surveyRead More…

Gallup CNN Break-Up

March 21, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal4 Comments on Gallup CNN Break-Up

And speaking of Gallup…
Here at MP, we are not prone to posting gossipy items about the polling industry, largely because what little gossip MP hearRead More…

The Perils of Double Negatives

March 21, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal1 Comment on The Perils of Double Negatives

Gallup’s David Moore has posted an analysis this morning (free for today only) with an important lesson on how to write – or perhaps, how not to writeRead More…

Gallup: “Bush Approval Steady at 37%”

March 20, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on Gallup: “Bush Approval Steady at 373”

Helping to underscore the question I asked at the end of Friday’s post, Gallup has released another national survey this morning that shows no change Read More…

“New Low” Update

March 17, 2006November 14, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on “New Low” Update

Charles Franklin has updated his job approval graphic to include the new surveys from the Pew Research Center and NBC/Wall Street Journal.  It iRead More…

Another “New Low?”

March 15, 2006November 13, 2019 Mark Blumenthal10 Comments on Another “New Low?”

In his Washington Post “Media Notes” blog, Howard Kurtz raises an important question about the coverage of the polls showing “new lows” for George BuRead More…

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