Polling Has Changed. The Way We Read (And Sometimes Misread) It Has Not.
In the 15 years since I started writing MysteryPollster, pre-election polling has changed a lot, yet when it comes to what we expect from polls, muchRead More…
Author: Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
Impeachment Update: No Signs of Non-Response Error
Support for impeaching and removing President Donald Trump from office has increased to near majority support on a wide variety of polRead More…
Gelman: Nonresponse Not So Rare
In yesterday’s Fivethirtyeight article, I argued that evidence of nonresponse bias is “hard to come by,” with the exception of “the highest of hRead More…
MysteryPollster is Back!
MysteryPollster is back! Fifteen years ago, almost to the day, I started posting articles to this site, something we used to call a “bRead More…
Another ‘Phantom Swing’? Investigating Differential Nonresponse in 2018
In an era of single digit response rates, many Americans distrust polls and some say they are inherently skewed. The truth is more complicated. PollsRead More…
MysteryPollster Is Back! (Sorta)
And we’re back! …but not really. It’s been a little over ten years since I forwarded traffic from the MysteryPollster urRead More…
The NYT Reader’s Guide to Polls
Jack Rosenthal, a former senior editor of the New York Times, filled in as the guest Public Editor” this past Sunday and devoted the column to a remaRead More…
Vacation
And finally . . . As readers may have guessed from the lack of posts the last few days, I am trying to take a much needed vacation break this week.&nRead More…
Crosstabs.org
Last week I discovered an interesting new blog devoted to political polling called Crosstabs.org. Actually, Crosstabs.org is something of a blogRead More…
So What *Is* A Push Poll?
Over the weekend, Greg Sargent of TPMCafe reported on what he considers "push polling, no question," involving some calls that trash two DemRead More…