Polls on Censure?

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The proposal by Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) to censure President Bush over the domestic eavesdropping program crossed an important threshold this morning.  It was mentioned in all the major "mainstream" newspapers and at least two cable news networks (CNN and Fox).   As such, it appears to meet the criteria that pollsters have offered as when considering whether to include a topic in national news media polls.  So after more than six months of organized campaigns to get pollsters to ask questions about impeachment, we may now need to consider how pollsters will ask a question that, as far as I can tell, no one has yet asked about President Bush:  Should he be "censured" by Congress?   

As summarized here back in January, a number of liberal websites have been conducting organized email campaigns to get pollsters to ask questions about the potential "impeachment" of President Bush.  In response to the email deluge, two prominent media pollsters explained why they have not asked any such questions and what conditions might motivate them to do so:

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport (8/30/2005):  "The general procedure Gallup uses to determine what to ask about in our surveys is to measure the issues and concerns that are being discussed in the public domain. We will certainly ask Americans about their views on impeaching George W. Bush if, and when, there is some discussion of that possibility by congressional leaders, and/or if commentators begin discussing it in the news media. That has not happened to date." [Article available to subscribers only, but also quoted here].

Washington Post Polling Editor Richard Morin (12/19/2005):  "We do not ask about impeachment because it is not a serious option or a topic of considered discussion–witness the fact that no member of congressional Democratic leadership or any of the serious Democratic presidential candidates in ’08 are calling for Bush’s impeachment. When it is or they are, we will ask about it in our polls."

MP’s quick search of the various poll archives finds no mention of "censure" in connection with President Bush.   However, MP found several fairly straightforward "censure only" questions in the massive Polling Report archive of Clinton question (parts I, II & III) asked during that period that pollsters might want to emulate now:

CBS News: "Given what you know right now, do you think Congress should censure President Clinton — that is, should Congress vote to publicly reprimand President Clinton for what he has done — or don’t you think Congress should censure him?"

ABC News:  Do you think the Senate should censure or officially reprimand Clinton for his actions in the Monica Lewinsky matter, or should it drop the case without censuring Clinton?

Harris:  Do you think the Senate should vote to censure the President for his behavior without removing him from office, or not?

Gallup:  "Regardless of whether or not you think Clinton should be impeached, do you think Congress should or should not vote to censure Clinton — that is, pass a formal resolution expressing disapproval of his actions?"

Now any of these questions would probably require an introduction that describes Feingold’s call for censure, and the nature of that description would certainly influence the results.   MP can easily imagine a heated debate over the language of any such introduction.  We should also assume that Americans are no better aware of the meaning of the term "censure" than they are of impeachment.  However, the meaning of that term seems easily deduced from the text of any of the questions cited above.

We should also note the obvious:  National media pollsters do not automatically ask questions on every proposal floated by a potential presidential candidate.  However, Feingold’s censure trial balloon seems to meet the general criteria articulated by Newport and Morin above.  So perhaps we will see questions on the topic — and argue about their meaning — in the next round of media surveys over the next month or so.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.