Kane on the Zogby Iraq Troop Poll

Iraq Legacy blog posts

RealClearPolitics has posted a highly critical op-ed piece by Tim Kane of the Heritage Foundation on the recent Zogby poll of US troops in Iraq.  While MP’s posts on this survey (here, here and here) focused mostly on sampling issues, Kane makes an important point about the question that produced Zogby’s headline ("72% Say End War in 2006):

[T]he widespread finding that three in four soldiers think the United States should withdraw from Iraq within a year has only one option for troops who think otherwise: stay indefinitely. This infamous question asks, "How long should U.S. troops stay in Iraq?" But the first three answers are not phrased in terms of staying, they are phrased "withdraw…," "withdraw…" and "withdraw… ." Where are the options for troops who think the United States should stay for "one to two years" or "two to five years"? Zogby omits such nuance. It’s stay or go. Now or never.

Here (via RadioBlogger) is the full text of that question:

15. How long should U.S. troops stay in Iraq?

1. They should withdraw immediately (29%)

2. They should withdraw within the next six months (22%)

3. They should withdraw within six to twelve months (21%)

4. They should stay as long as they are needed (23%)

5. Not sure (5%)

MP agrees with Kane of this one.  Compare that question to others I reviewed back in December on prospective policy in Iraq that were asked of ordinary Americans.  The results varied widely depending on the text and the number of options offered:

Support for leaving sooner varies anywhere from 35% to 63% on the questions listed above.  Support for staying the course (in one form or another) varies from 36% to 59%.  Ask a question with three or more options (as RT Strategies and Gallup did above) and, not surprisingly, at least a third of Americans opts for the middle category.

When respondent opinion is less than certain, the number of categories and the date ranges offered can have great impact on the answers.  Aside from the issue of "withdraw" versus "stay" that Kane raises, a different set of dates ("withdraw within the next two years, withdraw within the next four years, or stay…") may well have obtained a very different result.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.