Pre-SOTU Polls

Legacy blog posts Polls in the News President Bush

The last week  brought a batch of new surveys from the national pollsters.  While these include new questions that go into great depth on perceptions of the state of the union, corruption in DC and NSA wiretapping, on balance they do not indicate any significant shift in overall views of George Bush’s job performance during January.  The President will address a nation that rates his performance in office roughly ten points lower than when he won reelection in November 2004. 

Here is a complete list of the most recent polls, along with links to all available data summaries and results for the President’s job approval rating: 

  • Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: 41% approve, 51% disapprove (900 registered voters interviewed 1/24-25, summary and results)
  • Cook/RT Strategies : 47% approve, 50% disapprove (1,000 adults interviewed 1/22-25, Cook’s analysis and results)
  • LA Times/Bloomberg: 43% approve, 54% disapprove (1,555 adults interviewed 1/22-25, results)
  • CBS/NYTimes:  42% approve, 51% disapprove (1,229 adults interviewed 1/20-25, CBS summary, results for Bush/SOTU and everything else tabbed by party, NYT story and results with time series trends)
  • CNN/USAToday/Gallup:  43% approve, 54% disapprove (1,006 adults interviewed 1/20-22, CNN story, USAToday story & results, Gallup summary [subscription only]). 

Six of these surveys were in the field in both early December and last week.  All but Cook/RT Strategies also fielded a poll in early January.  Although the individual polls show what appears to be random variation, the wider view continues to be one of stability, at least with respect to Bush’s overall job rating.  By averaging across these comparable polls, we have an “apples to apples” average of 43% in early December and 43% as of mid last week.

PS:  For the table above, I averaged results for the Rasmussen automated tracking survey for the six days (1/21-26) that were closest to the field dates of the other late January polls.  Today, Rasmussen reports a 50% positive job rating for the interviews conducted over the last three nights (1/27-29).  It is worth noting that Rasmussen also reported a three-night result of 50% during the week between Christmas and the New Year.   Whether real or just random statistical noise, that “bump” faded quickly.

UPDATE:  Gallup has new pre-State of the Union analysis online that should be available to non-subscribers for the next 24 hours.

UPDATE II:  Franklin updates his graphics and includes this bottom line on the recent trend (or lack therof):

While some individual polls have registered relatively high approval ratings,
these have not been sustained in the same poll, which in January have shown
results consistent with the range of other polls, and an overall approval
estimate of 42.5% as of January 26 polling.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.