The latest CBS News/New York Times survey out this morning (conducted December 2-6) shows a five percentage point gain in President Bush’s approval rating (from 35% to 40%), confirming similar gains apparent in other recent surveys. CBS characterizes it as a "bump up," the Times as a "marked improvement." Both organizations post complete results that, as always, differ slightly in format. The Times includes complete time series data for each question (including party ID), while CBS provides cross-tabulations by party ID. The survey includes comprehensive questions on both the economy and Iraq (among other subjects) and is worth reviewing in full. Here are some highlights from the summary by the Times’ Robin Toner and Marjorie Connelly:
The survey, conducted Dec. 2-6, showed Mr. Bush’s approval rating at 40 percent, up from 35 percent a month ago, which was the low point of his presidency. His gains primarily came among men, independents, 18-to-29-year-olds and conservatives. He remains a fiercely polarizing figure, with an approval rating of 79 percent among Republicans, 12 percent among Democrats and 34 percent among independents.
Over all, 53 percent of Americans disapprove of Mr. Bush’s job performance, down from 57 percent a month ago…
As Republican strategists have hoped, Mr. Bush seems to be getting a political lift from the economy. Mr. Bush has tried hard to highlight good economic news in recent weeks, which have seen a drop in the price of gasoline and new figures showing strong growth in the third quarter. The poll showed that 56 percent describe the national economy as good, up from 47 percent a month ago….
There was some positive news for Mr. Bush on Iraq: Approval of his handling of Iraq rose to 36 percent, from 32 percent in October. And more Americans said that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do – 48 percent, compared with 42 percent in October. That increase in support came primarily from Republicans.
This survey includes two new "open-ended" questions that should be of interest to those us that obsess over the President’s job approval rating. At the very beginning of the interview, they ask respondents to say in their own words why they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. The results show just how central the Iraq war is to those who disapprove. Here is the analysis from the CBS News summary:
The war in Iraq is by far the biggest reason Americans volunteer for disapproving of the job Bush is doing as president – it is the answer given by more than half who disapprove. Smaller numbers say that the President is doing a bad job generally, that he is dishonest, or mention his positions on other domestic issues.
WHY DISAPPROVE OF BUSH’S JOB? (Asked of those who disapprove of Bush’s job)
53% Iraq war
8% Doing a bad job generally
8% Dishonest
6% Other domestic issues
5% Other personal qualities
4% Economy/jobsAmong those who approve, 35 percent say the President is doing a good job generally. Another 13 percent mention the war in Iraq. The President’s personal qualities and positions on issues are also among the top reasons given.
[WHY APPROVE OF BUSH’S JOB? (Asked of those who approve of Bush’s job)]
35% Doing a good job generally
13% Iraq war
8% Honest
6% Other personal qualities
5% Agree with him on issues
5% His party/ideology
5% Handling of terrorism
Again, no blog post can do justice to the depth of results in this survey. Pick a summary or PDF and read it all.
Bush Approval Bounces Back
“After months of political erosion, President Bush’s approval rating improved markedly in the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, largely tracking Americans’ more positive attitudes toward the economy.” The survey showed Bush’s approval rating at 40%,…
Now that’s an amazing poll. 53% on Iraq alone!?!? That a little bit sad that it took war, death, wasted money, torture, and maiming to piss people off about Bush, when he’s been a punk his entire life, and if anyone didn’t know before, they are sad ignorant souls.
It seems that the biggest cause of any bump up is the sudden drop in gas prices. The biggest jump is “the economy” and most indicators have shown the economy to be strong for months. But gas prices are a visceral way in which people interpret the economy and the recent 35% drop in gas prices has given people a lot more spending money than they had in September.
Why is it that people who analyze these polls never mention the margin or error? Based on that it could be that there is little or insignificant “bump” in the President’s poll numbers. Also, 40% favorable ratings are still abysmal – no two ways about it.
There’s another reason besides just the margin of error why the rise in Bush’s approval rating from 35% to 40% could have little substantive importance.
The rise could have been driven — in part or in whole — by regression toward the mean (see link below). Extreme values in a time series, either an extreme high or an extreme low, tend to be followed by values more toward the center of the distribution, purely as a statistical phenomenon.
An approval rating of 35% is probably about as low as Bush can go (barring a cataclysmic event that would cause major damage to his approval rating even among Republicans). Thus, Bush’s “rebound” could possibly be nothing more than regression toward the mean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
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