No Exit

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts

National Journal‘s free Hotline on Call reports that we will have no leaked exit polls to speculate about today in New Jersey, Virginia and California. 

And that’s not because the National Election Pool will delay the release until later in the day as promised last year.  Assuming the Hotline report is correct, it’s because NEP is not doing exit polls at all this year.  Judging from the Edison Research/Mitofsky International website (the company that conducts the NEP polls), they seem to be occupied with another project at the moment. 

MP assumes that the Los Angeles Times will be conducting its usual exit poll in California, but also assumes those results will remained locked tight as a drum as always until the polls close.

[UPDATE – 10:18 am EST] MP assumed wrong.  Those who know tell him the LA Times will not conduct its exit poll this year, apprently as a cost cutting measure.   

That means that anything you read about "leaked" or "early" exit polls today is almost certainly bogus.

Hotline on Call does provide the links to watch the results the old fashioned way.  They also promise to post updates all night from "campaign sources, folks at the parties, the RGA/DGA, journalists in the field and well-connected voters."  Check it out. 

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.