Ballot Issues: How Do We Know?

Initiative and Referenda Legacy blog posts

I was reading through an embarrassingly long backlog of email today and came across one message I meant to respond to weeks ago.  In my first post on initiative and referenda polling, I wrote:

We know that many voters make up their minds by reading the actual language on the ballot while standing in the voting booth or filling out their absentee ballot.

Reader A.L. emailed with a great question:

How do we know that?  What sort of research has been done on that?  Just what are the numbers like here…do 80% of voters decide in the booth based on the ballot language or is it more like 50%?

To be honest, we don’t.  At least, MP does not know with anywhere near that level of precision, and cannot find any formal academic research on that subject.   In response to AL’s question, I actually emailed the California pollsters to ask if they knew of any such research, and no one did. 

As such, it may have been more accurate to say "we assume" than "we know."  Certainly every voter gets exposed to the ballot language at some point.  For some (such as California who receive a sample ballot in the mail from their Secretary of State in advance of the election), this experience may come long before they vote.  For others, it happens for the first time as they are casting their vote.  Some may try to read the text before deciding, others have made up their minds before confronting the text.  How many try to decide by reading the text on Election Day?  I can’t say for sure, but I have certainly talked to voters who did just that. 

My observation was based mostly on a bit of conventional wisdom – widely shared by campaign consultants and managers – that derives from years of watching initiative and referenda campaigns.  More often than not, ideas that are very popular when polled as concepts fail at the ballot box.  Even when polled as a formal ballot issue, support almost always starts high and falls as the campaign progresses.   "No" campaigns do what they can to seed doubts, and like the campaign in Ohio, use legalistic or complex ballot language as their ally.  That’s why pollsters and consultants largely agree that the "no" side has a built-in advantage.

Just because I could not find an academic research on this question does not mean that none exists.  Perhaps one of MP’s many academically minded readers can suggest a citation.  If so, please post a comment or email me

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.