SurveyUSA on Miers

MP somehow overlooked that Survey USA is now running two separate automated tracking polls on the Miers nomination (see previous commentary on their recorded voice methodology).  One track has been following Harriet Miers’ favorable rating since last Saturday, when rumors of her nomination first started to swirl (see summary, crosstabs & tracking graph).  They have also just released a second survey conducted yesterday that asks some questions you won’t likely see asked by other pollsters (some of which are a bit leading): Will the Senate confirm Miers (not should they)?  Does Miers have “the potential to go down in history as one of the Supreme Court’s greatest legal minds?”   Will the Miers nomination be seen as “one of President Bush’s most brilliant decisions” or as one of his “greatest mistakes?” And so on (see summary & crosstabs). 

One intriguing thing about the SurveyUSA favorable rating is that the results from Monday and Wednesday are roughly comparable to the results obtained by the CBS poll conducted Monday through Wednesday evenings.  CBS had 11% rating her favorably, 11 unfavorably and the rest (76%) either undecided or had not “heard enough to have an opinion.”  On October 3, SurveyUSA showed 14% rating her favorably, 9% unfavorably and 77% had “no impression.”  On the other hand, they do show a jump in awareness of Miers on Wednesday night, with 28% favorable, 13% unfavorable and 59% with no impression.  Average the Monday and Wednesday interviews for SurveyUSA, and we get 68% for “no impression.” Given that it is probably easier to say one has not “heard enough to have an opinion” than to say one has “no impression of her,” the CBS and SurveyUSA numbers look well… not inconsistent.

Also, at risk of thinking out loud, MP wonders whether the one night SurveyUSA polls may produce samples that are slightly more attentive and informed than those conducted over three nights.  Any one night methodology will tend to overrepresent those who are always home and underrepresent those who tend to spend less time at home.  Would a one-night sample conducted on Wednesday night tend to overrepresent Americans who watched the news that night?  MP guesses it might. 

All of this is worth pondering because the SurveyUSA track shows a sharp upward trend in awareness of Miers (that translates into increased favorable and unfavorable ratings) over the last four days (see/click the chart above) which suggests that the CBS survey may already be a bit dated. 

MP assumes we will have many more such surveys in the days and weeks ahead.  It will be interesting to watch.  Stay tuned.