CBS on Miers

Legacy blog posts Polls in the News

Last night, CBS News released a new and very comprehensive survey conducted Monday through Wednesday evenings this week (The CBS web site has complete results plus a two-part written analysis covering the Miers nomination, the Bush job rating and more).  It includes some data that begins to provide a hint at the historical context in regards to the Harriet Miers nomination that our friend Mickey Kaus has been looking for (scroll to “First Poll”)

There is much in this survey to chew over (including the finding of a “new low” in the overall Bush job rating), but for now, MP will just pass on some of their findings on the Harriet Miers nomination along with some of their historical numbers.

One thing that CBS often does a bit differently than other pollsters is to prompt respondents to say when they “haven’t heard enough to have an opinion.”  They have always done so on questions about Supreme Court nominees.  As such, this practice probably gives us a better sense of those with truly informed opinions (as opposed to respondents who form an opinion on the spot in the midst of the survey). 

On their latest poll, CBS found an overwhelming majority of Americans either “undecided” about Miers (18%) or who haven’t heard enough to say (58%).  The rest split evenly, with 11% rating her favorably and 11% unfavorably. Earlier in the summer, a full ten days after his nomination to be associate justice, CBS found 25% rating John Roberts favorably and 7% unfavorably.  As with the Gallup survey released earlier this week, CBS found the biggest differences in reactions to Miers and Roberts among Republicans and conservatives.

However, CBS also asked the ultimately more pertinent question, one they have asked about previous nomineees: “Should the Senate vote to confirm Harriet Miers as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, or vote against Miers, or can’t you say?”  Most (70%) could not say, but those with an opinion split almost evenly, 14% to confirm and 13% to reject.

Earlier this month, in the context of a poll on John Roberts, CBS provided results of this question when asked about Robert Bork (in 1987) and Clarence Thomas (in 1991). To be fair, the historical data comes later in the confirmation battles of the earlier nominees, all of whom had been announced several months before CBS asked the “should the Senate confirm” question.  Obviously only a few days have passed since Bush the Miers’ selection, and opinions about her may well change in the coming weeks and months. 

With that important caveat in mind, here is how the comparisons stack up (the field dates for the surveys, as provided by CBS, are in parentheses):

Again,  it’s early.  However, these results show that most Americans remain inattentive to the Supreme Court nominees even toward the end of high profile fights like those over the Thomas and Bork nominations.  Considering that, the fact that early reactions for Miers look more like Bork than Thomas or Roberts does not bode well. 

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.