Katrina: Yet More From WaPo/ABC & Gallup

Legacy blog posts Polls in the News

The latest surveys from Gallup/CNN/USAToday and the Washington Post/ABC News were released last night that collectively take the most in-depth look yet at public opinion at the response to Hurricane Katrina.  No quick blog post could do justice to all the data available in both surveys.  I’ll post the links and some of topline results we have been focusing on most closely now and do some cross-survey comparisons later in the day.

As usual, analysis of the Post/ABC poll is available in both a front page Washington Post story and an online summary from ABC News.  The Post also has the complete results and demographics available by online PDF.  The link to ABC’s complete PDF version was not functioning as of this writing  is now functioning fine. 

The key results for the Post/ABC poll of 1,201 adults, conducted Tbursday through Sunday last week (9/8-11):

  • Overall Bush job rating:  42% approve, 57% disapprove, a new low, down from 45%-43%  approve-disapprove just two weeks ago.
  • Rating of Bush on "the situation caused by Hurricane Katrina:" 44% approve, 54% disapprove, down from 46%-47% approve disapprove two weeks ago.
  • Rating of the "federal government’s overall response to the situation caused by Hurricane Katrina:" 38% excellent or good, 62% not so good or poor, down from 48% excellent/good, 41% not so good/poor two weeks ago. 
  • 50% say Bush as a "strong leader," down from 62% in May.
  • 49% say Bush be "trusted in a crisis," down from 60% in May.
  • 76% support "an investigation by an independent commission like the one that investigated the 9/11 attacks."

The analysis by ABC’s Gary Langer emphasized the intensity of feeling in the Bush job rating:

As striking as Bush’s rating – his disapproval is higher than the worst for either of his last two two-term predecessors – is the intensity of sentiment against him: Forty-five percent of Americans "strongly" criticize Bush’s performance in office, an unusually deep well of disapproval. Far fewer, 27 percent, strongly approve.

As of this hour, the Gallup/CNN/USAToday results are available online only in a CNN summary and a story by USAToday‘s Susan Page.   Separately, USAToday provides the complete text of each question, but with results broken out by race only, omitting the overall results.  Presumably, Gallup will post its own summary and more complete results on its website later today (UPDATE: it is now online here). 

So where is the "official first George W. Bush job approval rating after the Hurricane" that Gallup’s Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport promised and speculated about last week?  One will not find it in the CNN online summary, which oddly omits discussion of the overall Bush job rating altogether (as did Suzanne Malveaux’s quick on-air presentation of the poll results at 7:08 am EST).  It does appear in the USA Today article, although the placement (paragraph 10) and Page’s description may provide a clue to CNN’s omission of the overall job rating form their online summary:

Overall, the president’s job-approval rating is 46%, essentially the same as the 45% rating in the Gallup Poll 10 days earlier.

That’s at odds with record-low ratings of 38% in a Newsweek poll and 39% in an AP-Ipsos poll, both released on Saturday. An ABC News-Washington Post survey released Monday put Bush’s approval rating at a record low 42%.

One possible reason for the discrepancy: The USA TODAY survey was taken later than the Newsweek and AP polls, though the timing coincided with the ABC poll.

Other results from the Gallup survey, conducted among 1,005 adults conducted Thursday through Sunday last week (9/8-11):

  • Rating of Bush’s "handling of the crisis" (from the CNN summary):  43% approve, 54% disapprove.
  • Is Bush a "strong and decisive leader?: 52% agree, down from 60% just two weeks ago.
  • 70% favor "an investigation by an independent panel into the problems with the government’s response to the hurricane."

Again, these surveys go into much greater depth on reactions to Katrina, especially with respect to the performance of federal, state and local officials and on perceptions of racial disparities.  The summaries are worth reading in full.  I’ll update this post with the Gallup.com links when they become available.   UPDATE:  The full summary by Gallup’s David Moore is now up and should remain available to non-subscribers for at least 24 hours. 

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.