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The Gallup Organization today released results from a new poll on the response to Hurricane Katrina, sponsored by CNN and USAToday. This new survey goes into depth on perceptions of the severity of the storm (really bad), whether Americans think New Orleans will "ever completely recover" (they are split) and on how they rate the response of President Bush, the federal government and state and local officials. It is worth reading in full.
(I am told by the folks at Gallup that content on their main page is available free of charge for the first 24 hours after posting, so the analysis should be accessible to non-subscribers for the next 12 to 24 hours. If not the Polling Report’s Katrina summary page has the full overall results).
Gallup’s David Moore tells us:
The poll also finds the public largely divided in its evaluation of the response by President George W. Bush and the federal government, though more people are critical than supportive of their efforts. The public is also highly critical of gas companies for the rise in prices, saying the industry is taking advantage of the situation to charge unfair prices . . . Despite widespread criticism of the response by Bush and, separately, the federal government, to the problems caused by the hurricane, the public seems on balance only mildly critical. Forty-two percent say Bush did a "bad" (18%) or "terrible" (24%) job, but 35% rate his response as either "great" (10%) or "good" (25%). . . Federal agencies received a similar rating, with 42% of Americans giving a low rating and 35% a high one. The public was about evenly divided on state and local officials in Louisiana — 37% giving a high rating and 35% a low one.
Do these numbers confirm the trend we have been watching on the SurveyUSA automated poll? The answer is unclear because Gallup’s question is different. SurveyUSA, CBS and ABC/Washington Post all asked respondents to say whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance with respect to Katrina. But note the language of the Gallup question:
Do you think [George W. Bush has] done a — great, good, neither good nor bad, bad, or terrible job — in responding to the hurricane and subsequent flooding? [Emphasis added]
The Gallup question includes an explicit middle category, "neither good nor bad," chosen by 21% of respondents to rate Bush. Typically, many of those who choose the middle category on a question of this sort will answer "approve" or "disapprove" if forced to choose. So the Gallup result may well be consistent with the results reported by SurveyUSA and others. Again, Gallup is asking a different question. MP will leave it to the reader to decide which question provides a better sense of public opinion on the Katrina response.
Another question that will no doubt get much attention, Gallup asked:
Who do you think is MOST responsible for the problems in New Orleans after the hurricane — [ROTATED: George W. Bush, federal agencies, (or) state and local officials], or is no one really to blame?
13% George W. Bush
18% Federal Agencies
25% State/Local Officials
38% No One to Blame
6% No Opinion
Clearly the public sees much blame to go around, while a plurality has trouble placing blame on any particular individual or entity. However, note that by probing the dimension of blame and responsibility, this question applies a tougher standard than the job ratings summarized above. One may conclude the President or others are doing a "bad" or "terrible job," yet still not hold them "responsible" or "to blame" for the problems following the Hurricane.
Finally, in his Daily Briefing streaming video today (available from the Gallup main page), Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport had this to say about polling on the President’s Job rating:
A question we’ve been asked here at Gallup repeatedly through emails and otherwise, what’s going to happen to George W. Bush’s job approval ratings? . . . Polling-wise, one thing that has happened is the Labor Day weekend. Traditionally we and other firms do not poll over Labor Day. Hence we have had no job approval ratings, official ratings on George W. Bush since the Hurricane. We certainly haven’t here at Gallup and to my knowledge I have seen none from other polling organizations. So for the moment, we’re flying blind in terms of knowing precisely what impact all that has happened has had on Bush’s approval ratings. We here at Gallup are polling now and by the weekend, we’ll have an update, an official first George W. Bush job approval rating after the Hurricane. [MP’s transcription]
Though Newport does not discuss today’s poll results (nor explain why their latest survey did not include an overall job rating), he goes on to speculate about Katrina’s likely impact on the President’s job rating. He guesses that the "typical rally effect" around the President "when bad things happen to the U.S.," plus the limited "positive" coverage on Bush’s two trips to the affected areas will blunt the "very critical media," at least among the 80%+ of Republicans who continue to support the President. Seperately, Moore’s analysis notes that among Republicans, 69% give Bush a positive rating for his handling of Katrina, only 10% are negative. Newport’s "best guess:"
Looking at all the data we have available to us here is that Bush’s job approval rating probably will not plummet significantly below the low point of 40% were he has been so far in his administration.
Stay tuned…
