More on Dueling Florida Polls

Divergent Polls Legacy blog posts Measurement Issues Sampling Issues

Another update on my last post on the mysterious difference in opinion on whether Jeb Bush should run for president as measured by two publicly released surveys of registered voters in Florida:  One by the Quinnipiac University Poll and one by Strategic Vision, a public relations firm that polls for Republican candidates. 

Late on Friday last week, Doug Schwartz of Quinnipiac sent an email that answered all of my questions about the demographic and partisan profile of his sample.  Although David Johnson of Strategic Vision emailed some comments on Friday, he did not provide any data on their survey’s demographics or partisanship and did not respond to a second specific request for such data that I sent yesterday morning. 

The following table shows the Quinnipiac data (I posted on the jump more information provided by Quinnipiac on the text of the their party identification question and definitions of their regional breaks):

All of this leads me to an important general point:  Much of the survey research process is hidden from view.  We can argue about the relative merits of various likely voter screens or of random digit dialing vs. list based sampling, but so much of what makes a quality survey – such as the experience and training of the interviewers, the procedures used to administer the sample – are out of reach of ordinary data consumers.  So how do we assess the work of a polling organization?  We often rely on the reputation of the pollster or of the news organization that sponsored the survey, but there is one objective standard that ought to get more emphasis:  Disclosure.  To put it simply, I have the most faith in organizations that go out of their way to be transparent and to answer questions when controversies arise. 

In this case, the Quinnipiac Survey stepped forward and released data on the demographic, regional and partisan make-up of their sample.  If nothing else, the Quinnipiac Poll should be strongly commended for its transparency on this issue. 

So far, at least, Strategic Vision has not.   Hopefully, we will hear from them soon. 

Also Released by the Quinnipiac Poll

Text of party identification question: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat an Independent, or what?

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.