Recent Polling on Social Security

I had hoped to post a primer on recent surveys on the issue of Social Security earlier in the week, but my bout with a flu-bug got in the way.  Fortunately, I discovered that the heavy lifting had already been done in a concise report by the Pew Research Center that conveniently summarizes virtually all of the recent polling on the issue.  It is absolutely a must read for those who want a quick overall review.

I’ll say a bit more on the Pew report below, but first let me do a quick primer on their primer.  One of the great challenges for all surveys on public policy issues is the danger of measuring what social scientists sometimes call “non-attitudes.”  The idea, first hypothesized by the legendary political scientist Phil Converse in the 1960s, is that the social pressure to appear opinionated during an interview induces respondents to report opinions on topics about which they have little knowledge or have not formed prior opinions. 

Many years of research and practical experience show that respondents in this situation do not generate attitudes at random, as Converse suggested, but rather draw cues from the language of the question and reason their way to an answer.  The answers of respondents without prior opinions have meaning, but it is highly dependent on the wording of the question.  Change that wording just slightly, and respondents may provide very different answers. 

President Bush’s proposal for private Social Security Accounts provides a classic example.  The Pew report tells us that many know little or nothing about it:

In Pew’s early January survey, only about a quarter of Americans (23%) said they heard a lot about the proposal; another 43% said they had heard a little, while 33% had heard nothing at all.

Yet while three quarters know little or nothing about the privatization proposals, Pew reports that only 3% to 16% offer a “don’t know” response when asked about them on various polls. 

Of course, “non-attitude” may be a bit misleading in this case because the President’s proposals stir up a variety of more general attitudes that are very real and strongly held.  Virtually every adult American comes into regular contact with the Social Security program, either as a payroll taxpayer or a beneficiary.  Thus, the questions about private accounts may draw upon attitudes involving: 

• The Social Security program generally
• The prospect of reducing Social Security benefits
• The likelihood of future generations receiving full benefits
• Taxes generally and Social Security payroll taxes in particular 
• Investing generally and the stock market in particular
• President Bush
• Democrats in Congress

Now let’s consider those ideas in the context of the numbers in the Pew Center report.  Social Security is certainly a popular program; 90% oppose “reducing Social Security benefits” (on a 1999 NPR/Kaiser/Harvard Study, though opposition is not quite as monolithic for less sweeping proposals to cut benefits). 

At the same time, 55% to 60% question whether they will receive Social Security benefits when they retire.  My hunch is that doubts about future benefits are driving the results in recent surveys (also cited in the Pew Report) that show 72-74% saying Social Security or has at least “major problems,” but only 18% to 24% agreeing that the program is “in crisis.   

However, one of the most striking tables in the Pew Research Center Report, copied below, shows results from questions asked by five different organizations about private accounts during mid January that show support varying from 55% to 29%

“Yes Virginia,” as Ruy Teixeira put it in his summary of the report, “wording does matter” (and Ruy has been all over this topic lately).   In general, on the questions the Pew Report, the more that the question language mentions increased risk, the role of stock market investments, the potential for reduced benefits, the lack of guaranteed benefits or describes the proposal as an initiative of President Bush, the less support it receives.   Put another way, support for private  accounts seems lower when respondents learn more about it.

It is hard to argue with the Pew Report’s conclusion that “public opinion on the various proposals being circulated is fluid and highly dependent on how the options are framed.”  Expressed in the present tense, that is undeniable.    However, as time passes and Americans learn more about Bush’s private account proposals, the results suggest that these currently fluid tenuous attitudes will solidify and move against Private Accounts in the same way public opinion moved against the Clinton Health Care proposals a dozen years ago.