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MysteryPollster

Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Year: 2004

The Newsweek Poll

October 3, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on The Newsweek Poll

Newsweek Magazine released a survey last night, “the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample” of all registered voters nationally since TRead More…

Democracy Corps on Debates

October 1, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on Democracy Corps on Debates

Just a quick update about another before-and-after debate poll conducted online last night by Knowledge Networks, this one on behalf of Democratic polRead More…

Off Topic: Fox News Hacked?

October 1, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on Off Topic: Fox News Hacked?

A break from polling for a moment.
Josh Marshall has been posting this afternoon (here, here and here) about a mysterious story about John Kerry that Read More…

The First Debate: Who Won?

October 1, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on The First Debate: Who Won?

Murphy’s Law might explain why a week after starting a blog, my home DSL and phone service has been out for three days running (perhaps that should beRead More…

Debates II: Instant Polls

September 30, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal6 Comments on Debates II: Instant Polls

As I mentioned in the last post, past history shows that the media’s coverage of presidential debates typically has more impact on voter preference Read More…

Debates: Focus Groups as Reality TV

September 30, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal1 Comment on Debates: Focus Groups as Reality TV

Ok, so apparently, MSNBC has pulled the plug on its plan to have Republican Pollster Frank Luntz conduct a live focus group on MSNBC among uncertain vRead More…

MoveOn vs. Gallup

September 29, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal35 Comments on MoveOn vs. Gallup

I have to admit I didn’t see the MoveOn.org newspaper ad attacking Gallup until very late last night. And when I did I was somewhat taken aback by Read More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I

September 29, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal9 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I

I want to return to the issue of weighting, beginning with a question commenter Ted H: What puzzles me about the idea of weighting by party ID is thRead More…

Good Analysis of Post/ABC Poll

September 28, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal15 Comments on Good Analysis of Post/ABC Poll

Unfortunately, the crush of time has prevented me from doing much analysis of the recent surveys beyond the horse race numbers, and yet I’ve also arRead More…

How do pollsters select “likely voters?”

September 28, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal

I am currently at work on a detailed series of postings on how pollsters select likely voters. Clicking on this link will display short excerpts of Read More…

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