Stones Cry Out on Exit Polls

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts

A blogger and San Diego State graduate student named Rick Brady posts his own exploration of the exit poll discrepancy.  Brady plows a lot of ground that will be familiar to regular readers and (at risk of ruining the surprise ending) ultimately finds MP’s take on the issue.  Nonetheless, he reports some interesting interesting information obtained about who has access to what and when we might expect a full release of raw data. 

First, he picked up a bit of color and information from Liz Doyle of Edison Media Research (the company that ran the exit poll along with Mitofsky International):

Ms. Doyle shared that she has been inundated with calls and e-mails from professors and bloggers demanding data because they are convinced there is some kind of conspiracy…I could tell Ms. Doyle had had it with these conspiracy theories. The bottom line was that everyone wants access to their unweighted data and methods for independent review….

Ms. Doyle politely informed me that the [raw] data I was requesting would be available via the Roper Center and due to the unprecedented demand for the data, the NEP was working as quickly as possible to prepare the data for public use. However, these unweighted data couldn’t be expected for at least three more months

Brady then spoke with Richard Morin, the polling director at The Washington Post and got the following response via email:

The Post was one of the subscribers to the exit polls, like the New York Times, WS Journal, USA Today. We got the results of the final national poll and a few states when it was completed but before it was weighted, so I know that the poll had Kerry up by 3. We do not have all of the states, however, and don’t know who, if anybody, saved them. They came to us as PDFs, not as data sets, so we cannot analyze them using SPSS or SAS. I saved the national but I do not believe I saved the four states we bought though my assistant did print them out and we have those copies. My recollection is that all of the states were off by a bit, all had a Democratic bias.

Interesting.

I am working on some more on the ongoing exit poll controversy and — as time allows (he says, knowing that his family reads the blog too) — will post a bit over the holiday weekend.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.