Exit Polls: Answering Your Questions

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts

Let me answer some questions that came up in the comments:

Frankly0 asks:

I don’t get the notion that the exit polls have a 3% MOE nationally. I can see 4% MOE for a given state, but the sample set is so large nationally (150,000, given the stipulated numbers) that it’s hard to believe that the MOE only goes down to 3%.

I don’t know the specific numbers involved, but the reason is essentially this: The National Exit Poll does one sampling of precincts nationally (to look at the popular vote and the national electorate) and separate samplings in the various battleground states. I don’t know exactly where they are polling, but it is safe to assume the networks did not see any reason to do exit polls in places like Utah or the District of Columbia.

Yes, they could roll everything together and weight down the value of the battleground states, but in terms of sampling error, the national sample is still not stronger than it’s weakest link, the smaller sample in the non-battleground states.

Cableguy asked the following (Ted B had a similar question):

How do you deal with people who voted before today, whether in person or w/ absentee votes. I assume you do polls to supplement exit voting? Do people in media/campaigns already have this data?

I thought I had answered that one already, but perhaps I was not clear: To handle early and absentee voting, the networks have completed telephone surveys in 13 states and screened for voters who said they had already voted. Their final exit poll will combine results from phone surveys of early voters and in-person interviews with in-person voters.

The networks should have this data now, though whether the leaked exit polls include them is anyone’s guess. Network coverage tonight will discuss this, I am sure.


P.S. Please fire away with questions in the comments section, but again, please refrain from posting leaked exit polls questions about numbers you may have seen. Thank you!

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.