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MysteryPollster

Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Month: October 2004

Poll of Polls

October 19, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal11 Comments on Poll of Polls

Alert reader JM tipped me off to the fact that Bill Schneider has reprised his “poll of polls” summary on CNN’s Inside Politics. According to the traRead More…

Military Absentees?

October 18, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal6 Comments on Military Absentees?

And speaking of uncovered voters… Several readers asked about active duty military personnel stationed overseas who will vote by absentee ballot. Read More…

More on Mobile Phones

October 17, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal8 Comments on More on Mobile Phones

I want to clarify a few points from Friday’s post on mobile phones, based on some of the very thoughtful reader comments.  First, it is temptingRead More…

Mobile Phones

October 15, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal48 Comments on Mobile Phones

Arianna Huffington, a frequent critic of political polling, is weighing in once again with an indictment of the "downright dangerous impact that Read More…

Debate III

October 14, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal10 Comments on Debate III

Here are the links to the post debate survey results. ABC and Gallup once again re-interviewed previously contacted respondents immediately after theRead More…

Where I’m headed

October 13, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal4 Comments on Where I’m headed

I made a list tonight of the topics I would like to cover over the next three weeks. A series on how pollsters define and identify likely voters
WirRead More…

Dissenting View

October 13, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on Dissenting View

Not surprisingly, Alan Abramowitz took exception to my comments earlier today. In the interest of fairness, I am posting a portion of his email replyRead More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part IV

October 13, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal7 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part IV

In Part I of this thread, I listed pollsters that weight by demographics but not by party identification, including the ABC News/Washington Post poll.Read More…

Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part III

October 12, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal4 Comments on Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part III

I have so far discussed two different philosophies of weighting by party. The purist model — still the choice of most media pollsters — weights samRead More…

Extended Posts: Follow-up

October 11, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal

Thanks to those of you who sent feedback on extended posts. The preference was pretty overwhelming to avoid extended posts altogether (49%) or to breRead More…

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