The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part III
Since the second installment of this series was a bit complex and abstract, even for me, I thought we might take a break and look at the difference bRead More…
Month: October 2004
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part II
Okay, we know from Part I that survey designed to forecast an election should ideally focus on those who actually vote and ignore non-voters. We alsoRead More…
The Why & How of Likely Voters – Part I
Before exploring the "how" of selecting likely voters, I want to explore the "why." Why do we care about selecting "likRead More…
Battleground States
Perhaps because I spend more time writing a blog these days and less time reading them, but I have seen very little attention given to this fact: In Read More…
One Less Mystery
One more puzzle I can help demystify: Those ever so slightly variant numbers from the Washington Post and ABC News, the numbers based on the same datRead More…
Kohut’s Op-Ed Piece
Since my email box was chock full of forwarded copies of Andrew Kohut’s op-ed piece on polling in this morning’s New York Times, I thought I would bloRead More…
Likely Voters I: Thanks Harris
So on to likely voter models. Finally.
I am in the process of gathering information on the likely voter screens and models used by most of the major Read More…
Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea
As many of you may have discovered the “incumbent rule” (and this site) through yesterday’s post on Ohio, I want to add one important point: But be cRead More…
Ohio
The main page on RealClearPolitics tonight shows a set of results for Ohio that has political junkies scratching their heads nationwide: OH: ABC: Read More…
NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?
As a companion piece to their poll story, the New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg weighs in this morning on why the polls disagree. It touches on much of wRead More…