NYT: Why Can’t Pollsters Agree?

Divergent Polls Legacy blog posts Likely Voters Sampling Error

As a companion piece to their poll story, the New York Times‘ Jim Rutenberg weighs in this morning on why the polls disagree. It touches on much of what we discuss here. Two money quotes:

While the headlines they produce may diverge, the actual findings of these polls may not be so different. The differing conclusions reflect how different pollsters use complex formulas to interpret very similar findings among self-described registered voters and try to come up with a result they think best accounts for who will actually show up at the polls…

“Science is put in place and then the pollster has to exercise judgment about how to define likely voters,” said Nancy Belden, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. “And every polling organization may define a likely voter slightly differently, or in some cases, more than slightly differently than the next polling organizations.” [link added]

I’ll say. Rutenberg’s piece is a good primer for the likely voter issues I’ll be covering over the next week. As they say, read it all (and soon while it’s still free!)

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.