Military Absentees?

Legacy blog posts Sampling Issues

And speaking of uncovered voters…

Several readers asked about active duty military personnel stationed overseas who will vote by absentee ballot. The overseas troops are obviously completely out of reach of standard telephone surveys. I was especially intrigued by this issue, given the survey just released by the Annenberg National Election Survey of 655 active duty military (including National Guard and Reserves) and their family. All interviews were conducted with respondents at their homes in the U.S. While they did not ask about vote preference, the Annenberg survey did find considerable support for George Bush:

Whether they urge anyone to vote for him or not, a variety of measures showed that they
preferred Bush to John Kerry. Sixty-nine percent had a favorable opinion of Bush and 23 percent
an unfavorable opinion. But only 29 percent had a favorable opinion of Kerry, while 54 percent
were unfavorable…. When asked whom they would trust more to handle the responsibility of commander-in-chief, 69 percent of the military sample preferred Bush to 24 percent for Kerry.

So, active duty military certainly seem to be different than other voters. Are there numbers big enough to provide a hidden Bush vote?

Short answer: No. If I can believe recent media reports, the total number of troops abroad eligible to vote stands at about 500,000, and overseas military personnel had requested that 340,000 absentee ballots as of July. Yet even in the unlikely event that all 500,000 eligible troops cast ballots, their number would still be roughly 0.5% of the total votes cast in 2000. This number might be big enough to make a recount interesting, but it is obviously nowhere near enough to make any tangible difference in the national polls.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.