Debate III

Debates Legacy blog posts

Here are the links to the post debate survey results. ABC and Gallup once again re-interviewed previously contacted respondents immediately after the debates. CBS and Democracy Corps did the same using a nationally representative Internet panel (the Democratic aligned pollster put out a release & questionnaire), though the CBS sample was limited to “uncommitted voters” (bonus: a white paper on the Internet panel methodology from its vendor).

Although the initial coverage may not reflect it, the surveys were consistent: Controlling for initial partisanship, viewers thought Kerry was a better debater than Bush in all of the surveys. On both the Gallup and ABC surveys, Democrats judged Kerry the winner in larger numbers (86% for Gallup, 81% for ABC) than Republicans favored Bush (73% for both Gallup and ABC). Gallup also reported that Kerry supporters gave their man higher marks (89%) than Bush supporters gave Bush (80%).

The uncommitted voters in the CBS survey judged Kerry the winner 39% to 25%. Once again, the ABC, Gallup and Democracy Corps surveys showed Kerry with narrow but nonetheless consistent advantages among Independents:

  • Gallup: Kerry “did a better job” 54% to 34%
  • ABC: Kerry “won the debate” 42% to 35%
  • Democracy Corps: Kerry “won the debate” among Independents “by six points”

Despite the small sample sizes, the consistency across surveys increases my confidence that Kerry’s advantage among independent debate viewers was real. On the other hand, ABC noted intheir press release (not yet posted to the web) that “the independents who tuned in were more Democratic-leaning in vote preferences, breaking 52-43 percent, Kerry-Bush.”

Of course, with the exception of the Democracy Corps survey, none showed significant changes in voter preferences, but that is the usual pattern. Obviously, since the first debate, Kerry has gained ground, but there is no telling whether that pattern will continue following the third debate. As always, the debate coverage is most important.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.