Battleground States

Interpreting Polls Legacy blog posts The 2004 Race

Perhaps because I spend more time writing a blog these days and less time reading them, but I have seen very little attention given to this fact: In every poll which has released results for some definition of “battleground” states, John Kerry runs slightly stronger against George Bush in those toss-up states than he does nationally.

Ordinarily, I would advise caution in interpreting subgroup findings, as the smaller sample sizes come with considerably more sampling error. However, when we see a consistent pattern across multiple surveys, we can have a lot more confidence in the statistical significance of the finding.

Here is the list of what I have been able to cobble together (note that the definition of battleground states varies from poll to poll, from 12 to 20 states):

The pattern is consistent: In every case Kerry runs better in the “battleground states” than he does in the overall electorate, although in some cases the difference is quite small. Another survey that did not release specific numbers also showed the same pattern: John Gorman of Opinion Dynamics noted that his survey for Fox News showed a similar result: “One odd factor is that much of the lead is concentrated in the so-called ‘red states,’ which were pretty much conceded to Bush at the beginning. Thus his national lead does not reflect a big lead in the battleground states that will decide the election. We may well be facing a situation, as we did in 2000, where the popular vote and the electoral vote produce different results.”

These findings raise a lot of interesting questions that I just don’t have time to consider carefully. Do these findings suggest “the possibility,” as the analysts at Harris put it, “that the popular vote and the electoral college vote may divide differently, as they did in 2000?” I also wonder how much of this result is concentrated in a few big swing states, like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida?

Any thoughts? Post ’em! As Dick Gephardt might say, “this is your blog too!”

Update: Alert reader RE sends this paragraph from a 10/18 release by Gallup: “Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush’s current national gains may in essence be ‘lost’ in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry.”

Update II: MyDD’s Chris Bowers has more commentary and adds the most recent numbers from the Rasmussen automated survey: Overall: Bush 49, Kerry 46; Battleground States: Bush 48, Kerry 48.

Thanks to IPSOS, ICR, Hart/McInturff and CBS for providing data.
10/22 – 11:21pm: Corrected erroneous Harris from original post
10-25 – Replaced original table with image file. Links now on the jump

AP-IPSOS
Marist Poll
Pew Research
NBC/Wall Street Journal
CBS/New York Times
Harris
Gallup
Washington Post
ICR

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.