Good Analysis of Post/ABC Poll

September 28, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal15 Comments

Unfortunately, the crush of time has prevented me from doing much analysis of the recent surveys beyond the horse race numbers, and yet I’ve also argued that we all need to pay less attention to horserace numbers. Not very helpful, I know.

So rather than try to dig into the numbers myself, I want to recommend this morning’s poll analysis story by the Washington Post’s Dan Balz and Vanessa Williams. It nicely describes the ongoing decision making process among swing voters conflicted between “deep concerns about Iraq and the pace of the economic recovery” and the perception that George Bush is “a stronger leader with a clearer vision.” Two key paragraphs:

Bush’s relentless attacks on Kerry have badly damaged the Democratic nominee, the survey and interviews showed. Voters routinely describe Kerry as wishy-washy, as a flip-flopper and as a candidate they are not sure they can trust, almost as if they are reading from Bush campaign ad scripts. But Kerry’s problems are also partly of his own making. Despite repeated efforts to flesh out his proposals on Iraq, terrorism and other issues, he has yet to break through to undecided voters as someone who has clear plans for fixing the country’s biggest problems…

Among those voters who dislike Bush’s policies and are still making up their minds, the three presidential debates may offer Kerry his last opportunity to show them that he has what they are looking for in a president.

My only quarrel with the Balz/Williams analysis is their use of “solid” to describe Bush’s current lead. ABC Polling Director Gary Langer, in a separate analysis of the same numbers concludes,

That result [Bush’s current lead] is not predictive — the race has been tied and it can be again. But these results present three prime worries for the Kerry camp. One is that, unlike Kerry, Bush has maintained his immediate post-convention gains (the candidate evaluations in this ABC/Post survey are little changed from those in the last). A second is Kerry’s weak personal position, which sends him into the debates with a certain lack of good will. And the third is a very broad sense that Kerry hasn’t enunciated a clear message; registered voters by 2-1 say Bush has taken clearer stands on the issues.

Taken together, that analysis seems on target. Bush has a small and imortant advantage, but the debates provide Kerry with a potential opening.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.