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MysteryPollster

Demystifying the art and science of pre-election polling – By Mark Blumenthal

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Month: September 2004

Must Read WSJ Article

September 25, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on Must Read WSJ Article

In a crush of work yesterday, I somehow missed a terrific article by Sharon Begley in the morning’s Wall Street Journal, “Public-Opinion Polls DiverRead More…

The Election Isn’t Held Today

September 24, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on The Election Isn’t Held Today

So far, we have been talking about the limitations of polling, a topic that we will discuss in great detail going further. However, with a slew of neRead More…

No Mystery

September 24, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on No Mystery

First of all, I need to clear up one bit of unintended mystery. As of today, my real name appears on the right sidebar as “editor” and in the authoRead More…

In medias res

September 23, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal13 Comments on In medias res

Thank you, Mr. Kaus (and, for that matter, Mr. Reynolds as well).
Now that I have your attention, you may be wondering, who am I, and what is this bloRead More…

Weighting by Party

September 23, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal32 Comments on Weighting by Party

It is nearly impossible to blog on political polling this week without discussing the subject of weighting by Party ID.  Ruy Teixeira of the EmerRead More…

So What Should a Junkie Do?

September 22, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal2 Comments on So What Should a Junkie Do?

So what are we to make of polling, given that it allows for a wide variance of results at this point in the election? For average voters trying to maRead More…

More Divergent Than They Should Be?

September 22, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal3 Comments on More Divergent Than They Should Be?

Picking up where I left off on the last post, let’s start with the basic theory of random sampling. If we draw a series of perfect random samples, Read More…

Divergent Polls

September 22, 2004October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal10 Comments on Divergent Polls

Monday’s edition of National Journal’s Hotline listed seven headlines from the last few days that “say it all,” as they put it, about recent politRead More…

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