In medias res

Legacy blog posts MP Housekeeping Polling & the Blogosphere

Thank you, Mr. Kaus (and, for that matter, Mr. Reynolds as well).

Now that I have your attention, you may be wondering, who am I, and what is this blog about?

Starting a political polling blog right now is a bit like the opening of the first Star Wars movie. We are in medias res – in the middle of events – with bombs exploding and lasers blasting in all directions. Nonetheless, it is also a moment of peak interest in the workings of my chosen career. An unexpected confluence of events has provided the opportunity to act on an idea I’ve pondered for months. So ready or not, here we go.

I am a Democratic pollster, but my aim here is not to try to spin the latest poll results in any particular direction. There are many other voices in the blogosphere that perform that function admirably. My hope is to provide a bit of straight shooting – the same role I play for my clients – with respect to polling methodology and what the polls can and cannot tell us about the state of the campaign. I also hope provide a bit of criticism and fact checking on the good, bad and ugly of surveys in the public domain. That’s criticism in the formal sense, less about attacking and casting blame than about evaluating and providing an authoritative though, admittedly, subjective opinion.

I have spent most of the last 18 years as an apprentice analyst, senior analyst and ultimately a partner in firms that conduct surveys for Democratic candidates, working with some of the most brilliant pollsters and political strategists in America. Over the years, I have had the opportunity to design and analyze literally hundreds – perhaps thousands – of polls designed to plot strategy and track campaigns as they progress toward Election Day.

With one foot firmly planted in the world of applied polling, I have also dabbled in the academic side of survey research. I got exposed to the gods of polling at the Institute for Social Research (ISR) while a Political Science Undergrad at the University of Michigan. I completed work toward a yet unfinished Master’s Degree at Joint Program in Survey Methodology (JPSM) at the University of Maryland and have attended conferences of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). Perhaps more important, I have dog-eared my subscription to AAPOR’s academic journal, Public Opinion Quarterly throughout my continuing apprenticeship in political polling.

The moment seems ripe. Political surveys have never been more ubiquitous, yet never more challenged. On the Internet, the consumers of polling are swarming sites and blogs like realclearpolitics, ThePollingReport, kausfiles, donkeyrising, mydd, dailykos, pollkatz (to name just a few) to download the latest polling numbers and debate their meaning. Yet I am struck the pervasive lack of knowledge in the blogosphere of the most basic concepts of survey research. It has never been more important for those of us who poll for a living to do a better job of explaining what we do.

My business partner, David Petts, likes to say that campaign pollsters are the “plumbers” of survey research. He means that our role is distinct from the “architects,” the brilliant academic survey methodologists at major universities, government statistical agencies and private research institutions who advance the true science of survey research. Our work applies their designs to the political world the way plumbers install pipes in a new house designed by an architect. We sometimes apply our practical knowledge and compromise the design in ways the architects don’t like, but we also have a unique insight on the practical side of our jobs. Campaign pollsters also have a role distinct from the big media pollsters, who aim to inform the public rather than drive campaign strategy.

On a basic level, I hope to help political junkies of all stripes do a better job reading and evaluating polls. On a more lofty level, I’m hoping to foster greater communication between the architects, plumbers and consumers of survey research.

This blog will be, like most, a work in progress (I’m embarrased that the curtin is going up before I’ve had a chance to post a basic blogroll!) I’d welcome your comments, suggestions or criticisms via email. Do you have a question about polls that has confused you? Please, send it my way.

But enough for lofty goals. Back to the campaign!

UPDATE: Very well qualified reader WP writes to correct my Latin: “In medias res means ‘INTO the middle of things.’ It’s the famous phrase because this is what Horace says in the Ars Poetica, that the storyteller should jump right into the middle of things, the way Homer does – rather than spending a lot of time with preliminaries.” Ah…That’s what I get for trusting Google. Thanks WP, I stand corrected.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.