When pollsters interpret results for a race involving an incumbent, most are at least aware of a phenomenon observed for telephone surveys over the last 20 or 30 years: Voters who are still undecided on the very last poll tend to “break” disproportionately for the challenger. The two most important posts on this subject are the following:
Also, click on this link to display short excerpts of all of the posts concerning the incumbent rule in reverse chronological order (most recent first).
Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.
