Debates II: Instant Polls
As I mentioned in the last post, past history shows that the media’s coverage of presidential debates typically has more impact on voter preference Read More…
Month: September 2004
Debates: Focus Groups as Reality TV
Ok, so apparently, MSNBC has pulled the plug on its plan to have Republican Pollster Frank Luntz conduct a live focus group on MSNBC among uncertain vRead More…
MoveOn vs. Gallup
I have to admit I didn’t see the MoveOn.org newspaper ad attacking Gallup until very late last night. And when I did I was somewhat taken aback by Read More…
Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I
I want to return to the issue of weighting, beginning with a question commenter Ted H: What puzzles me about the idea of weighting by party ID is thRead More…
Good Analysis of Post/ABC Poll
Unfortunately, the crush of time has prevented me from doing much analysis of the recent surveys beyond the horse race numbers, and yet I’ve also arRead More…
How do pollsters select “likely voters?”
I am currently at work on a detailed series of postings on how pollsters select likely voters. Clicking on this link will display short excerpts of Read More…
Why are polls showing contradictory results?
In a sense, every post on this site seeks to answer the question of why polls seem contradictory. A good place to start is with the following three pRead More…
What does the “margin of error” mean?
A good place to start is with the following three posts on the random variation inherent in all sample surveys and what a consumer can do to minimize Read More…
How do pollsters select “likely voters?”
I have done a lot of posting on this topic. If you want a very thorough reading, start with Part I and continue through the series. You might also wRead More…
Should pollsters weight by party identification?
The debate over whether pollsters should statistically adjust (or weight) their samples by party identification has been heated during campaign 2004.&Read More…