Happy New Year
Just a reminder, in case you missed my holiday post, that I am taking a break this week. Blogging will resume in the New Year. In the meantime,Read More…
Year: 2004
So if Exit Polls Have So Much Error, Why Do Them?
After my post last week, which argued that the deceiving Kerry “leads” in four battleground states fell well short of statistical significance requirRead More…
So WHY Were the Exit Polls “Wrong?”
This post is another summary that mostly ties together various items I’ve covered separately, but also adds some new material. We know that the exit Read More…
Season’s Greetings!
First, I just wanted to let everyone know that I will be taking a much-needed break from blogging for the next week. I’ll be back on January 3. Read More…
Have the Exit Polls Been Wrong Before?
I have a short backlog of posts on the exit polls I’ve been working on this week, intended mostly to summarize information I’ve covered previously anRead More…
Oh Those Pesky Filtered Questions
Josh Marshall flags an error in Wednesday’s Washington Post poll story on Social Security (conducted jointly with ABC). The story correctly reRead More…
NAES Reports on Hispanic Voters
The National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) has just weighed in with its massive 81,422 interview rolling survey on the issue of Hispanic voter prefRead More…
What About Those German Exit Polls?
A commenter asked last week, "why are exit polls so much more accurate in Europe?" This is a question worth considering, because all surveysRead More…
Measurement Error…in the Count
A quick break from exit polls… Alert JW, a resident of Washington State, asks this interesting question highly relevant to the ongoing recount in tRead More…
Exits: Were They Really “Wrong?”
Last week’s posting of more detailed information on the sampling error of exit polls by the National Election Pool (NEP) allows for a quick review ofRead More…