CT: No Exit Polls Today (Make that One Exit Poll – See Updates)

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts The 2006 Race

August 8, 2006October 1, 2019 Mark Blumenthal25 Comments

I noticed several hundred (at least) incoming Google searches on various combination of "Connecticut exit poll Lieberman Lamont," so let me pass on the official word regarding today’s Connecticut primary from ABC’s The Note: "There are no pooled network exit polls" [emphasis added].**

The Note also passes along this helpful information for those who plan to follow the returns:

The Connecticut Legislation and Elections website (LINK and LINK)
will be updated continually, as soon as information comes in. The state
is using a brand new system, which may or may not work. Should the
system not work, officials are prepared with a spreadsheet and the site
should be updated at roughly fifteen minute intervals with results.

Lever machines will dominate in today’s primary, with a smattering of optical scan voting places. And here is a chart, courtesy of the excellent folks at the AP,
detailing the timing of the reporting of results on election night in
2004 to use as a guide for tonight.

First Reports from Counties:          8:35 pm ET

20% of Precincts Statewide by:       10:00 pm ET

90% of Precincts Statewide by:       1:01 am ET (Wednesday)

100% of Precincts Statewide by:       9:44 am ET (Wednesday)

Clarification: No "pooled" exit polls means no exit polls sponsored by the major networks, i.e. the National Election Pool (NEP) consortium. If anyone else conducts true exit polling in Connecticut, it’s news to me.

Some organizations (such as the Associated Press and Zogby) have conducted telephone surveys on Election Day in recent elections ~~some places~~, and Zogby has taken to labeling his approach an "exit poll." I have no idea if any such efforts are underway in Connecticut today. I would have little faith in the ability of such a poll to project the outcome on Election Day, especially the Zogby model which apparently took three days to complete.

UPDATE (8:32 p.m.): Very alert reader Melanie reports in a comment below that she "filled out an exit poll for CBS news." Via email she adds:

It was an electronic device – the logo at the top said CBS News, with no
reference to our local CBS affiliate in Hartford. (It surprised me, which is
why I remember it.) There were a lot of questions – it took from 5-10 minutes.

She adds that most of the questions concerned the Lieberman-Lamont race, but for some reason "didn’t ask about the race for the gubernatorial nomination." Further:

I just heard a reporter note on NECN (New England Cable News- not affiliated
with any of the majors, I don’t think) that NY Times/CBS are doing exit
polling – I don’t know if it’s true, but that was what he said.

Obviously, the polls in Connecticut have now closed, so any results from this exit poll are likely to come directly from CBS News or the New York Times. ..

UPDATE II (8:48): Kathy Frankovic at CBS News confirms that they did in fact conduct an exit poll in Connecticut today in partnership with the Times, but will not be using it to project a winner in the Senate race. Stay tuned…

UPDATE III (9:30 a.m. 8/9): CBS has posted a brief report on their exit poll online.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.