Bush Job Rating: No SOTU Bounce

Legacy blog posts President Bush

Four organizations have now reported conventional national surveys since the State of the Union, and collectively they show little or no movement in the job rating of President George Bush.   Once again, the annual address to Congress has produced no “bounce.”

The table that follows shows the most recent results from the four pollsters, plus their comparable results from early December and early January.  None of the surveys showed statistically significant differences in the Bush job rating, and the small changes the report in approval appear random in their direction (Fox and Pew were slightly higher, Gallup slightly lower and AP/ISPOS unchanged):

An “apples-to-apples” average of the polls done during the first nine days of February shows a one point increase since January.  However, Gallup followed up with a second survey that shows a slight drop (from 42% to 39%) that appears too small to MP to be statistically significant.  Nonetheless, if we average the two Gallup surveys and use that to calculate an overall February average, it would be 41% approve — unchanged since December.

For those who would like to dig deeper into the data, here are links:

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.