More on (Sigh…) Exit Polls

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts

Looks like my New Year’s resolution to change the subject won’t last through my first day back. As those who read the comments on this blog probably know already, there were a few developments in the ongoing exit poll controversy during my break:

  • Someone posted a batch of pdf files that appear to be actual internal Election Day reports generated by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool (NEP). Each file shows cross-tabulations of the vote — similar to those posted by the networks online — that also includes an overall tabulation of the vote (marked "not for on-air use"). The site lists many different files; some are for the presidential vote, some for the vote for Congress. Each file has two versions, one showing percentages tabulated horizontally, one vertically. The files of greatest interest are those whose file names end in "NONE_H_data.pdf." These show the presidential vote preference on the "national" survey tallied at three different times (all presumably EST): 3:59 p.m. and 7:33 p.m. on Election Day and 1:24 p.m. the next day (11/3).
  • A new paper on the exit poll controversy is making its way about the Internet, this one by Jonathan Simon and Ron Baiman. It focuses on comparing extrapolated "results" from the national exit polls to the national popular vote.
  • Several emails and comments have noted that Steven Freeman has released a new batch of papers on his website, discussing his hypotheses for the "exit poll discrepancies" [although as of this posting, those links were not working].

Unfortunately, my time is up for today. Resolution aside, I will have more to say about all of the above over the next few days.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.