Breaking News: NEP Releases Full Report

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts

A bit of breaking news:  The full 77-page "evaluation" of the exit polls prepared by the firms that conducted the exit polls was released this morning and can be downloaded from their website, exit-poll.net

Some highlights from the Executive Summary:

Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters…

Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment….

Our detailed analysis by polling location and by interviewer has identified several factors that may have contributed to the size of the Within Precinct Error that led to the inaccuracies in the exit poll estimates. Some of these factors are within our control while others are not.

It is difficult to pinpoint precisely the reasons that, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters. There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify, but which led to Kerry voters being less likely than Bush voters to refuse to take the survey. In addition there are interactions between respondents and interviewers that can contribute to differential non-response rates. We can identify some factors that appear to have contributed, even in a small way, to the discrepancy. These include:

  • Distance restrictions imposed upon our interviewers by election officials at the state and local level
  • Weather conditions which lowered completion rates at certain polling locations
  • Multiple precincts voting at the same location as the precinct in our sample
  • Polling locations with a large number of total voters where a smaller portion of voters was selected to be asked to fill out questionnaires
  • Interviewer characteristics such as age, which were more often related to precinct error this year than in past elections

Seperately, Warren Mitofsky informed the email listserv of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) that the individual level respondent data are being sent today to the Roper Center Archives at the University of Connecticut and the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) at the University of Michigan.  The data at the Roper Center should be available in "about two weeks."

Obviously, I want to read the full report carefully…more later…

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.